• Overall Xbox 360 outlook for the holiday season: mediocre.
• Overall Nintendo Wii outlook for the holiday season: strong
• Overall Sony Playstation 3 outlook: moderate to strong

And he says parents not able to find a $250 Wii will buy a $400 Ps3. Why they would do that rather than a $280 or $350 Xbox 360 feels a bit off to me. Maybe he's thinking parents will recognize the Sony brand over the Microsoft brand?

Labels: Gears of War, Halo, Microsoft, Nintendo, PlayStation3, ramblings, rants, Sony, Wii, Xbox 360

Labels: announcements, Gears of War, rumors, Xbox 360

• Core -- $299, wired controller, and no hard drive (aka, "The useless SKU", IMHO)
• Premium (or "Pro") -- $399, wireless controller, headset, and 20GB hard drive
• Elite -- $479 -- $479, wireless controller, headset, 120GB hard drive, 120GB hard drive, and sexy black

If you go to Xbox.com, you'll see something pretty interesting. While the "Core" is stilled called "Core", the "Premium" is now simply listed as the "Xbox 360 System". This is huge, as it implies this is the mainstream SKU, and the Elite is the upper SKU.

Conceivably, this means "goodbye" to the Core (please), and a price drop on both the mid-range and Elite SKUs. Or, on the outside, reduction in product line to just the Elite, and a price drop.

Microsoft has said they're working to shrink their 90nm Xbox 360 CPU chipset down to the 65nm scale, which are (obviously) smaller components, but they also use less electricity, run cooler (a boon to 360 owners and the alleged 33-502% failure rate), and most importantly to the above argument, are cheaper to mass-produce. What hasn't seemed to make general news is they're also looking to do the same to the GPU chipset, further reducing cost.

Analyst projections have set an Xbox 360 price drop for this fall, but if Microsoft's chip roadmap is on track, they have room to do an early price drop, if the Sony announcement forces their hand.

Most likely though, in the face of their financials hit related to the "Red Ring of Death" 3-year warranty announcement, Microsoft may choose to tough it out until this fall, and announce a price drop at the Halo 3 launch, or (honestly) afterwards, if that game drives high console purchases at the current price points (why drop prices if people are buying your product at a higher margin?).

As an aside, people shouldn't badmouth Sony too much for dropping the price of the PS3 as being indicative of their backs being against the wall. As they'll tell you, they've moved more PS3s in the same time period than they did PS2s. Now, that's positive spin, as that's shipped units (not necessarily purchased); the PS2 was selling to a less game-available market; they didn't have the competition of a resurrected Nintendo they helped almost kill (or the lack of SEGA competition, which they did kill); and they didn't have to deal with the upstart Xbox (which wasn't even supposed to be a contender, and now dominates in some ways). And, percentage-wise, PS3 sales suck compared to the PS2 sales.

And keep in mind Sony dropped the price of the PS2 eight months after launch, and they're dropping the PS3 seven months after launch. Know you're history, kids.

Speaking of which, what about Sony's still market-dominating PS2? Did you miss that a slimmer, lighter (900 to 600 grams for the base unit, and 350 to 250 grams for the AC adapter) version is creeping into the marketplace? This smaller unit is cheaper to produce, so there could be a fall or holiday drop (from $139 to $99), should Sony want to further muddy the waters.

So what's the net-net?

Expect an interesting E3 this week, as Sony tries to sell how big their price drop and new SKU is, and the other console makers do (or don't) react to it.

More telling will be sales of all consoles in the next several weeks (the price drop for the 60GB PS3 is rumored to be effective July 12th, but the 80GB SKU won't be available until August, which may cause potential buyers to not act on the price drop, as they wait for the upper-end SKU's availability).

And what comes out of E3 this week will be telling. What's gamers' perception of the console of choice, based on games introduced at the show? For example, if Microsoft's biggest announcement is Gears of War on PC, that doesn't really help the 360, per se.

This fall and holiday will be even more interesting, as the Xbox 360 install base is re-assessed on the basis of Halo 3 sales and Sony competition; Sony reassess based on the price cut and new SKU, and Nintendo re-assess based on catching up to demand, and any impact to a possibly reduced PS2.

For analysts, a lot of fodder for ivory tower theories. For business folks, a lot of data and trends to assess, and and for gamers, just good times ahead as all of the console makers try to drive price down and increase the quality and content of service and product offerings to get you to buy their consoles.

Labels: announcements, console updates, Epic Games, Gears of War, Nintendo, PC, PlayStation3, SEGA, Unreal Engine 3, Xbox 360

• Video game comics
• Tenchu Z
• Castlevania film update
• Gamecock's EIEIO
• Halo 3 "goodies"
• Soul Calibur IV (video)
  (Updated)
• Xbox 360 changes
  (Updated)
• David Jaffe
• Gears of War DLC
• 3D Realms announces announcements
• BioWare's 2009 MMO
• Carmack's game engine (video)
• Junction Point updates
• Steamed Capcom?
• Sony launches blog
• Dark Sector due 2008
• Episodic content expands
• Usability and Human Factors
• Peter Cullen (video)

• Heat sink / pipe combo (now)
• Quieter DVD drives (now; in new units and some repaired units)
• Smaller, cooler, cheaper CPUs (July-ish)
• Smaller, Cooler GPU (Fall 2007)

By this Christmas, we should see a quieter, more robust 360 -- a scant three years after the console's release.

UPDATED: From Microsoft (a la Kotaku.com):

"Regularly updating console components is commonplace within the industry
and is a standard aspect of the business for a variety of reasons including cost
reduction, improved manufacturability and improved performance."

David Jaffe:

The dude behind God of War and Calling All Cars might be making good on his "going independent" mutterings. Cell phone picts have surfaced on Jaffe's site, indicating an in-process build out, possibly of a development studio. Will he become a Sony "Second-party" Dev (playing it safe), or will he branch out and show some Wii, 360, PC, and other love? We'll see ...

Gears of War DLC:

A Gears of War free title update (with new achievements) hits late tonight (June 14th) / tomorrow. It'll add eight new achievements for the "Annex" game-play type and Hidden Front Maps. It also includes an improved version of the "Roadie Run" controls.

Also, according to Major Nelson:

'The "Annex" gametype is now available for free and the "Hidden Fronts" Multiplayer Map Pack is available on Xbox LIVE Marketplace for 800 Microsoft Points. All four multiplayer maps will be available for free after Sept. 3, 2007.'

3D Realms announces announcements:

3D Realms, the developers of the forever-in-development Duke Nukem Forever, have two upcoming non-DNF announcements. Says creative director Raphael Van Lierop:

"I can say that we have a big announcement coming in the next four weeks, and I'm not sure, but I believe we have another major announcement coming in the next four to six months... while I can't say exactly what these are, are they about Duke Nukem Forever? No."

Demoing during a Steve Job's keynote address, id Software's John Carmack showed off the new "id Tech 5" game engine -- designed for Xbox 360, PS3, PC, and ... Macintosh. Looks slick, promises to make amazing development easy, blah blah blah.

It is cool that it seems to decouple the game play from the asset reworking, so, after finalizing game play, you can still "put artists on it to go ahead and make it look as good as we have time and resources to do."



Junction Point updates:

Another on the Austin gaming connection, over at the recently reworked junctionpoint.com, new concept art for unnamed game(s) is showing up throughout the pages. And there's a new, bare-bones WordPress blog for Warren Spector and other Junction Point devs to use as a pipe through which to share their brilliance with the rest of us.

Steamed Capcom?:

Capcom's jumping on Valve's Steam distribution / download service, which is huge. Microsoft, Sony, GameTap, RealNetworks, Valve -- there are a ton big (and a plethora of small) players in this space. As broadband speeds increase, ultra-wideband wireless becomes a reality, and fiber becomes the norm, the winners are going to win big.

Sony launches blog:

Joining the now-gen, Sony has launched an official Playstation blog, with the inaugural post by none other than President & CEO Jack Tretton. Some good, reasonably transparent stuff here.

Dark Sector due 2008:

For gamers, this holiday is going to rock. For those (like me) waiting for Digital Extremes' Dark Sector, you're going to need to wait until after the holiday. According to D3Publishing:

"We've decided to pull Dark Sector out of a very crowded holiday season and it is now slated for release in Q1 2008."

Episodic content expands:

Telltale Games got a $6 million influx. What they're using it for is more of their successful multi-platform episodic content.

Honestly, "Episodic Content" and "Digital Distribution" are two of the two New Hotnesses of gaming, so Telltale is on the forefront, and playing this wicked smart.

Usability and Human Factors:

Usability is not a choice. Good usability is. So I like this apropos Penny Arcade strip. Devs, take note.

Peter Cullen:

Peter Cullen, the voice of Optimus Prime in the 80s cartoon, upcoming Michael Bay Movie, and video game tie-in, gives a brief video explanation of his role and the voice of Optimus. As a voice actor, I'm inspired. As a fanboy, I have goosebumps.

Labels: announcements, companies, console updates, DLC, Epic Games, events, Gears of War, Halo, media intersection, shooters, Unreal Engine 3, XBLA, Xbox 360, Xbox Live

• Bullet Marsh -- "Kryll-infested swamp"
• Garden -- "overgrown and crumbling conservatory"
• Process -- "subterranean Imulsion processing plant"
• Subway -- "Timgad’s Central Subway Station"

Full details here.

Labels: DLC, Epic Games, Gears of War, shooters, Unreal Engine 3