Adam Creighton, Computer and Video Gaming (Subscribe)
Wednesday, September 16, 2009
AGDC: From Dragons and Daggers to Kart Racing, Cooking and Concerts...It's a Whole New MMO World
AGDC kicked off in earnest with the keynote, "From Dragons and Daggers to Kart Racing, Cooking and Concerts...It's a Whole New MMO World":
"In MMO development, companies can slip into habitual processes derived from targeting the same audience over and over. This session will explore Sony Online Entertainment's first tween/teen title, Free Realms, including market research, focus testing, business intelligence, online and retail distribution, and customer acquisition and retention strategies. Attendees will learn about the challenges and lessons learned when creating a full-blown MMO for kids together with a ground-breaking new business model; and how developers can re-educate their teams to move from stagnant and dated MMO design toward mass market success."
I like John Smedley - I think he's a sharp guy who's accomplished a ton for SOE and for the game industry (gamer gripes for Star Wars Galaxies aside).
To set context, Smedley shared some traditional MMO statistics (a la games like EverQuest) - like 33 is the average age of players, 85% are male, 15% are female, and SOE wanted to tap into more of the female / kid gamer market - thus birthing Free Realms, a free-to-play tween MMO, which represents a significant portion of SOE's new direction (DC Universe Online notwithstanding).
Free Realms is fascinating to me for a number of reasons.
First, I like the blue ocean(ish) aspirational aspect of the title.
Secondly, Smedley and a lot of the folks working on the game are family folks with kids, working to create a safe game that everyone can play. I appreciate they're working to keep it safe.
I like how serious SOE is about monetizing Free Realms as a free-to-play, genuine powerhouse of a worldwide brand, and paying attention to the significant differences in this gamer market.
To this end, they've really pushed formal usability testing (daily use of an on-campus focus testing lab, changing interfaces and user experience quickly to adapt to what the data indicates, etc.).
FR is a micro-transaction-based, with in-game items (clothes to pets to items that help your chosen profession, etc.), and I was surprised that they're doing back-end revenue share with retailers - which evidently is going very well. There is also in-game advertising, that seems to be tastefully handled, and largely within the Sony family.
There were also some compelling stats and anecdotes for the efficacy of TV ads for their target demographic.
Age breakdown of Free Realms players (to compare to traditional numbers above):
<13:51%
13-17:29%
18-24:12%
25-34:5%
35-44:2%
45+:1%
Smedley could not emphasize enough how much data mining they do. Sounds like they're doing the business intelligence analysis to do something cool with it.
There's also some interesting gender data in the mining they've done. Boys and Girls are different. Shocking. (But not as shocking as those who pretend they're not. <flame/>)
Regardless, while a lot of GDC Europe and Gamescom did not float my boat (and Microsoft's presser certainly didn't), I am excited by the recent Sony / Microsoft tête-à-tête.
What tête-à-tête, you may ask?
Why, the $299 PS3 "Don't - call - me - 'Slim' - 'cause - Sony - says - it's - just - the - new - PS3", and the $299 Xbox 360 Elite.
So, now, both consoles have a 120Gb hard drive, both have HDMI, both are at the same price.
Now things are getting interesting.
The new Ps3 "not-slim" is smaller than the original PS3. But it doesn't have backwards compatability (which the 360 does for a boatload of titles, along with full game downloads). Online play is free for Sony-ites via its online service (PSN), whereas Xbox 360 charges $50 a year for access to Xbox Live (but you get a lot more content for that fifty bucks, so arguably you get what you pay for).
The PS3 has built-in Blu-ray support, and the 360's HD-DVD add-on is a dead goat (or something). But Xbox has streaming Netflix exclusivity, which is huge for me (and it has Netflix party, but in it's current state, I call a negative).
Microsoft has (for me) way more compelling arcade titles, and I like their indie games marketplace (though the crap to more-like-gold ratio is high). Sony is getting ready to launch "minis", which sound like cheap(ish), polished short-attention-span-theater-style games (which sounds great). But those are likely just PSP.
Sony looks like they're offering just the $299 version as a single SKU offering; Microsoft has both the Elite at $299, and the Arcade at $199 (which is cheaper than the Wii).
So ... does this change anything for you? Sway you one way or another? PS3 because of the new, smaller (not slimmer) form factor? Xbox 360 because the Elite is now $299?
Let me know in the comments. Though things could get more interesting. Microsoft's got more levers (what if they made Xbox Live cheaper? Free?). Sony could actually do something on their box (media wise) with all of the film, audio, and distribution studios and companies they own.
Sony rounded out the big 3 E3 pressers, and while having the benefit of going last, had less than an hour to make any adjustments (if needed) in response to Nintendo's just completed press conference. The "press" crowd in attendance seemed a lot more animated than the other two platform attendees.
Their intro video was pretty slick, both in showcasing titles, and in providing the sub-text of power, growth, expansion, and history ( along with an explicit "One World. One Vision." background vocal riff).
Jack Tretton, President and CEO of Sony Computer Entertainment of America (SCEA), lead off, and he was engaging and entertaining, despite a stated admission of nerves.
Tretton said 364 games are coming out on PlayStation platforms (PS3, PS2, and PSP) this year alone, designed to meet "Every taste. Every Budget. And Every Need."
He also made some understandably bold words about 2009 being everything they wanted.
Of the titles he listed out of the gate (Modern Warfare 2, FFXIII, Rock Band: The Beatles, Batman: Arkham Asylum, Ratchet & Clank, and Heavy Rain), only the last two are PS3 exclusives.
Tretton led off with PS2 numbers, and touted it and its 2,0000-game library as the "perfect family console", and continued the party line of PS2 being the gateway drug to PS3 (he used different words).
Sony grew install base by 22 million units over the last year, and has 24 million worldwide PSN accounts, and said there will be more than 35 PlayStation exclusives this year.
On the games front, Tretton led off with Infamous, the PS3 exclusive which is selling and reviewing extremely well. Smart to show current success representative of what the PS3 can do commercially, technically, and critically.
Naughty Dog showed Uncharted 2: Drake's Fortune canned single player gameplay, which looks Assassins Creedish (in a good way) in places, and I like the duck, cover, and related combat and evade mechanics (Naughty Dog, like Sony dev Insomniac knows how to push the hardware). The game launches its multiplayer beta tonight (at least for those that bought Infamous).
MAG (one year later) finally got to show off its live multiplayer gameplay. Zipper Interactive guys brought us Socom, and now they bring us massive online firefights at a whole new level. I like what they've done with things like the player-controlled helicopters with mini-guns bringing in players who have died and respawned. I can't tell if the footage was "live live", or "recorded live". They said "live", but the live narration was a little too matched to events onscreen. The game comes out this fall.
Shifting to the PSP, Tretton gave a brief history of the handheld (hardware and software). The large number of titles he listed for teen and tween girls felt a bit like a bulkhead against the same kind of fare on rival Nintendo's handheld platfroms. But Sony'll be releasing a lavendar PSP.
Kaz Harai, President and CEO Sony Computer Entertainment, Inc., absent at last-year's Sony E3 press event, took the stage to talk about changes to the design and features of the PSP that have built its successor -- the PSP Go. Not meant to be a replacement for the PSP or PSP 3000, per se, it will be marketed alongside those platforms. It will launch October first of this year, and sell for $249 / 259 Euros (the same price as when the PSP first launched).
All PSP titles moving forward will also be available via digital download (in addition to UMD for the non-Go versions of the PSPs).
There was a brief aside that PSP toolkits will drop 80% in cost to developers, which is a smart move in making it easier and lower risk for developers to get content onto Sony's handheld platform, and seemed an unintentional rebuttal to Nintendo's just-previous press conference statement that the Nintendo DS is low-cost platform on which innovative game developers can take risks.
Sony also smartly announced their new "Media Go" initiative / service / technology (I'm not sure the degree of each the "thing" addresses each), which replaces the current media interface. Media Go will make it easier to access media across the PSP, PC, and PS3 platforms, hopefully heading in the direction of a more leverage able media experience for a company that has a massive content library frankly not getting into Sony platform holders hands.
The PlayStation video service will be available natively on the PSP and PSP Go shortly, and Sony is launching new content from a host of content providers, from Showtime to Viz Entertainment.
Kazunouri Yamauchi (Polyphony Digital) annnounced Gran Tourismo PSP, and showed it running on PSP Go -- a launch title running at 60fps, 800 cars, huge number of tracks (and tons of variations on each track). It looks to be the be-all end-all of the full Gran Tourismo experience, and tailored to the unique features fo the PSP platforms (including the networking and social aspects of the platforms).
Harai re-took the stage to introduce Hideo Kojima (Kojima Productions), and he introduced Metal Gear Solid: Peace Walker -- a PSP Go game that takes place 10 years after the first Metal Gear as a "true sequel" set in the 1970s. Kojima is deeply involved in writing the script and producing the title, and several Metal Gear Sold 4 devs will be involved in its production. The game will be published by Konami.
Tretton rejoined the stage to announce Resident Evil Portable. He also announced other PSP titles including Little Big Planet, Socom, Jack & Daxter, Motorstorm, Monster Hunter, Harry Potter, Guitar Hero, and more, coming to PSP this fall.
Tretton re-stated PSN has 24 million users (11 million in North America), Sony has seen 150% growth in console install base (I'm assuming that's across all platforms), and more than 90 unique titles this year alone.
He also said more than 50 PSOne titles will launch this year on PSN, starting wtih Final Fantasy VII from the PSOne on PSN today. I know people who's heads just exploded.
PlayStation Home currently has 6.5M users (and Sony wants us to know they have an 85% return rate), and Home Spaces are on the rise. They showed a brief video showing its growth and pervasiveness, but for me I didn't understand the differentiation between it and, say, Second Live branded islands.
Sony showed a really impressive PS3 title sizzle reel. With so many games and no title or developer / publisher text, I struggled to determine what the titles were, how many there were, how many were duped, and which were exclusive.
Agent from Rockstar North was announced as a PS3 exclusive. Rockstar can certainly deliver polished innovative content, and maybe Agent will take them in a direction with as high a caliber, but not the social contention, of the GTA series.
Reps from Ubisoft took the stage to show off Assassin's Creed II, set during the Renaissance, and shifting the story and character development to start with a non-assassin (who will become one). Using Renaissance personalities like inventor Leonardo DaVinci, new game mechanics like flight and the double-handed assassination (which got a great crowd response) are additions over the last game. Thirty total weapons (things like the smoke bomb) are available in the game, plus an additional 6 if you play and unlock them from Assassin's Creed: Bloodlines on the PSP. Both titles will be available holiday 2009.
Tretton used the PSP / PS3 connectivity in Assassin's Creed for what sounded like a launch point for more connectivity discussions, but instead showed new footage for Final Fantasy XIII.
Much bigger, Sony announced PS3-exclusive Final Fantasy XIV Online, I believe slated for 2010.
Tretton then intro'd next-gen successor to the controller / EyeToy synergy -- "true, one-to-one tracking" via the EyeToy and a prototype motion controller (alternately called that, a wand, and I think just an "Eye"). They showed off a variety of tech demos, which were interesting and representive of the functionality. Sony's message is you need both the camera and the controller.
Given the tech demo and the stilted presentation, I wonder if this was originally planned for the Sony presser, or was reactive to Microsoft's Natal announcement Monday.
I liked the RTS tech demo, because it showed a concrete game demo application, as did did the combat demo (sword and shield, throwing stars, and archery). Tretton says the tech will launch Spring 2010, which seems extremely aggressive.
Shifting gears, Sony announced Little Big Planet will be getting a ton of new content. PS3 owners tell me LBP is a console mover for them.
This was an stepping pad to announce another PS3 exclusive from United Front Games / Sony San Diego Studios -- ModNation Races (the next incarnation of the "Play. Create. Share." umbrella that includes Little Big Planet).
This game and customization looked like a ton of fun -- very stylish, and the track editor looks intuitive and powerful (5 minutes to create a brand-new track with variable elevations, levels, mountains and lakes, hills, props, weapons, upgrades, etc.).
Sony announced PS3-exclusive The Last Guardian from Team Ico / Sony Japan Studio. Looks freaky cool (the giant animal looks like a ginormous cross between a coyote puppy, gryphon, and a rat).
There was also a quick tease of Gran Tourismo 5, which I install has a huge install base for the franchise, but it felt really disjoint after the Ico reveal. Not sure why it wasn't used to bridge the conversation from Gra Tourismo PSP to the larger sibling platform. That's how I would have done it.
Finishing off, Sony live demoed God of War III as an appropriate capstone to the PS3 exclusives.
E3 is coming, and hopes to nod more toward its glory days from before the past few years -- and it may just do that.
I'm looking forward to several things, and while there are lot of predictions out there, I'm keeping mine fairly small and fairly me-centric.
And while I'm going to comment on some of the rumors out there, I'm not going to chat up anything I may have knowledge about thanks to my day job -- that would be bad form, and this industry has enough problems with loose lips.
First up and close to home, I'm excited about four titles powered by Gamebryo tech from Emergent Game Technologies that will likely be making a big splash next week. Two will definitely be on the show floor, two are likely, and I'm not going to announce any of them until they make their debut. And we have some long-time and new licensees that will be doing some exciting pitch work at the show, but I won't talk about that, either.
See, I'm starting out as a tease.
Here's the big presser line-up:
Microsoft conference – 6/1, 10:30 a.m. Pacific
Electronic Arts conference - 6/1, 2 p.m. Pacific
Nintendo conference – 6/2, 9 a.m. Pacific
Sony conference – 6/2, 11 a.m. Pacific
On the big announcements front, I hope Microsoft or Sony do an announcement similar to Microsoft's disruptive Netflix announcement from last year. I hope Sony doesn't just announce they have Netflix, too -- because that would feel me-too(ish), and not as fun. It would take away from Microsoft's differentiation, though, so that would be a smart business move.
There are all sorts of rumors for peripherals or some other announcement from the Big M, which as a consumer I've been expecting for a while. Have you been paying attention to what feels like really liquid pricing on the current 360 camera, including dirt-cheap pick-ups for in-game bundles of it? Noticed the wireless headsets selling for nearly half of its MSP? Etc.
Maybe Microsoft will do something with convergence -- what can they do to leverage the PC, Console, Zune, and windows mobile platform across each other? We've gotten a bit of this with the announcement of Zune HD and the Zune Store being made available to 360 owners. That's good convergence, and the Zune is seriously under-rated. Maybe there's a Windows Mobile 6.5 or Windows Mobile Microsoft - says - it - doesn't - exist - but - get - real version 7 crossover opportunity? Microsoft's exciting challenge there is to not cannibalize any of those platforms (for example, intro'ing an iPhone competitor would hurt both Zune and Windows Mobile)
But really, I'd like to know: Where the #### is Live Anywhere?
Sony needs to do something. I can't get my head around Microsoft doing so well on the media catalogue / media convergence thing against Sony -- They have a freaking extra-dimensional monster closet vault of music and video, so why aren't they doing something with it? Is there some mistaken notion that it will undercut the value-add of the PS3 as a Blu-ray player?
I'd like to hear some big announcements on Sony convergence, and maybe that'll be PS3 / PSP (or rumored PSP Go) or PS3 / Sony Ericsson phone or -- dare I dream -- an announcement for a massive, unified Sony device synergy that is real and awesome. I don't think the "PS3 Slim" will be there, and I don't think it would be wise -- I think it would hurt PS3 sales, and unless they've done power and heat dissipation magicks, I don't think it would be a full-featured PS3, which could cause consumer confusion (and raise gamer ire).
Nintendo is going to be Nintendo, which you can take as you will. They will be innovative, their handhelds and Wii own the commercial consumer non-core space, and the company is still printing money, if a little slower than they were. I hope they surprise everyone with yet another new peripheral. And by surprise, I mean something that makes people say, "Wii remotes and nunchucks and Balance Boards and MotionPlus and Wii Speak, and everything else -- those are cool, but this, this I must have!"
I do expect some game coolness for Nintendo, but think it may come uncharacteristically from 3rd parties (I'm hoping the High Voltage Software Wii FPS The Conduit does as well as that developer and SEGA hope it does).
Despite a ridiculous amount of pre-E3 leakage, Microsoft is uncharacteristically under wraps, so I'm hoping for bigness, because they're talking a big game.
And I honestly am hoping for a bit of competitive rodeo, because Microsoft's presser goes first this year, and if you're Sony or Nintendo, how do you head off the under-wraps Microsoft?
Traditionally (besides having big stuff of your own) you take away the differentiators -- take away Netflix, or something. Maybe do more with Miis on the Wii than Xbox Avatars are doing -- but watch out, because I don't expect Microsoft to keep those still). Better, leapfrog the differentiators by announcing Netflix, and something like an XM exclusivity.
And someone needs to add a social networking component. (In a way that matters.)
Yeah, but it's all about the games, right?
Right! (I'm lying, but the games are cool.)
What am I stoked about?
Besides the Gamebryo titles I hint at above (and genuinely, as I'm off the clock and out of shill mode), here are some of the titles or rumors I'm looking forward to.
Modern Warfare 2. Infinity War is top-notch. The previous game was fantastic, and this one continues on. And despite the reveal in Game Informer Magazine, they claim "big surprises" are still in store for this title. I hope we learn those at E3.
Crackdown 2. I don't think this is on anyone's radar for E3, but a sequel to one of the better games on the 360, after a premium theme randomly popped up for purchase? C'Mon, show me some super-cop love.
Dead Rising 2. Sure, the games not going to be shown, but the US arm of Capcom will likely be in attendance, so maybe it will. I so dug the first game, despite hating the save and escort mechanics. I really thought it was an indicator of what next-gen gaming could be, and it sounds like the sequel -- as long as gameplay is pushed as hard as raw polys -- could build on and explode that legacy. Plus we should all be practicing for the inevitable.
BioShock 2. If you don't know why, you haven't played the former. Go do that then come back and apologize.
Assassin's Creed 2. Sure, it was a bit of a super-polished more intricate period-piece Crackdown, but it was a rocking super-polished more intricate period-piece Crackdown.
New Splinter Cell. Ironically, wetworks dude Sam Fisher has gone dark in the real world, too. Ubi says he's back, so show him to us, and make us uncomfortable. Very.
God of War III. We need next-gen sacrilege on the PS3. It will move consoles.
Halo ODST will be there (it's not E3 without Halo), but I hope there's more excitement about it then announcing an attractive female actress as part of the voice cast. Maybe also give us an update on the Peter Jackson Halo effort (or tell us it's dead, so the mourning can begin).
Capcom could surprise and delight me with a new Marvel vs. Capcom (it's my fantasy, dammit), I wish Epic would update us on what People Can Fly are doing, they may announce Cliff's horror game (though the rumored PS3-exclusivity seems like an ungrateful thumbing at Microsoft for the the Gears and Gears 2 successes).
Shooters Singularity and Brink have me intrigued, given Raven's and Bethesda's / Splash Damage's pedigree (respectively).
I'm losing interest in Borderlands, and I want them to change my mind. Lost Planet 2 doesn't have to do much pwn me, because while I can't articulate it, the first game pwned me too.
Aliens vs Predator will be there. And it will rock. I listen to my gut on this one (just before it's used as a footstool for a chestburster).
And while the cinematics and roster aren't as big as the previous title, Marvel: Ultimate Alliance 2 will be in my library, so I'm excited for more info that shows me this is doing comic books right again.
Mini Ninjas from Eidos looks cute and fun.
From EA, I don't think Brütal Legend can fail, so I hope it doesn't. Dante's Inferno is interesting, and I want my spiritual successor Dead Space Extraction to do well. Because I'm that kind of dad. Dragon Age: Origins needs to show me gameplay, I'm fanboy nervous about G.I.Joe, and I'm curious about Spore Hero. I go back and forth on The Saboteur.
I'm hoping Painkiller: Resurrection fits my previous guilty pleasure, but it'll probably make me upgrade my PC to do it.
I want A Boy and His Blob and Flip's Twisted World to be good for Majesco and for platformers.
Maybe the last 4 years have been good to Huxley?
Marvel Super Hero Squad may make me buy a personal Wii this fall. Wish they'd hire me for voice work.
I want Valve to wow me. I've got an itch in the back of my brain about a team that is using their tech that had some promising stuff, and it escapes me now. The itch tells me I'm mildly iterested if it's them.
On the more dark-horse(ish) front, BlActivision's been teasing an "all-new" game -- what if it was exclusive to one console? Square-Enix has teed up new games -- exclusives?
What about a 360 MMO?
And I want Heavy Rain to cross the uncanny valley. And build a bridge so others can follow.
And now I'm rambly.
It's going to be noisy, and I am concerned publishers will try to take advantage of the eyeballs to push everything -- not just their top-tier offerings. Think movie tie-ins, other licensed fare, and non-AAA sequels. That may take away from the good stuff, and the sleepers (who can ill-afford it).
I think E3 still suffers from an identity crisis (is it a consumer or industry show?) but maybe this year will help it suss out what it wants to be when it grows up.
While just a year into formally being in the games industry, I have reached an unlooked-for measure of success: I'm getting video game holiday cards.
I got a bunch, and I particularly enjoy the company-themed offerings.
Below are a few of my current favorites. Of course, these are the outsides of the cards; I'm not going to share the insides, because those are besmirchingpersonal.
Cards and lightweight opining below.
Sony: ("Understated. Tastefully branded. Tastes good with cheese.")
My Card for 2008: ("Edgy because it's Christmas, and gutsy in hoping 'game-theme' will win out over 'Santa-hating'.")
No, I didn't make my holiday cards (this year), but I really dig this card with art from Charlie Podrebarac. And, yes, Sony and Nintendo are not getting this particular card. They get different cards. Obviously.
Overview: The Tokyo Game Show is in full swing, and other than putting some links over on the left to TGS tags or sections of industry sites (IGN, Joystiq, and Kotaku*), I haven't been able to write much -- though I've been keeping up.
So what's the big news at TGS?
Depends what you like.
If you're of a certain type, maybe it's all about the TGS "companions" and their "outfits".
I'm not writing to your type. Ever.
Industry Happenings: From a lightweightish touchpoint of the industry perspective, the platform representation is a bit interesting. Not definitive by any means, but the percentage of titles per platform at TGS08 is an interesting indicator of commercial interest (and therefore, addressable market) for those platforms. Obviously, the data slightly skewed due to the regional (and, therefore, regional consumer interest) nature of show.
Attendance is down around 11,000 from last year (continuing a downward trend), probably due to Nintendo's continued absence, and the in-betweenness of big shipping titles and not-yet-playable titles, and/or Microsoft as one of the big publishers still not being the Japan draw that Sony is (or Nintendo would be, if they deigned to show).
But ignoring jaded gaming press's various wailing's about "not much happening" at TGS this year, for gamers who still love games, there's some good stuff, and Saturday's public attendance (from picts) at least looks respectable.
Microsoft: If you're an Xbox 360 fan, there was a lot of good noise on that front. Besides the formal announcement the New Xbox Experience (NXE) coming November 19th, (confirming what we already knew, based on an XBL ad), it sounds like the monolothic, twice-a-year Xbox dashboard updates of the past may give way to more fleet-of-foot updates, which as a gamer, program and former development manager, makes me happy. Plus, the videos of the new dashboard in use is pretty exciting.
And the laggard "Bringing it Home" downloadable content finally showed up (anyone else find it funny that Xbox Live's Major Nelson seemed surprised by the content?). Oh, but good luck finding it in one place on your Xbox, since I have yet to find the TGS08 button there, what with all of the "Shocktober", Quantum of Solace, Gears of War 2, and other noise on the dashboard. (UPDATED: Turns out I got to it by going to Marketplace --> Spotlight --> Games --> Tokyo Game Show 2008 (37 slots down from the top? Seriously?).)
If you're more on the 360 fanboy side, you should take glee in Microsoft's further eroding of the Sony exclusives by taking Tekken 6 (out next year), adding to the usurped Grand Theft Auto and Final Fantasy franchises.
Oh, and Halo junkies? Bungie finally got to make their late- and- undercut announcement of Halo: Recon, a boxed-title expansion pack for Halo 3, that will be a prequel (single player campaign and new multiplayer maps and modes), featuring a playable Orbital Drop Shock Trooper (ODST) marine -- a bad-ass looking character I've been waiting (and I'm pretty sure I've been promised I'd be able) to play since Halo 2. The trailer shows off the repeat top-notch, triple-A, traylor madd skilz we've seen in past Halo universe trailers. Some of the cool stuff is pretty subtle (which makes it cooler).
Of similar interest is the Halo Wars RTS, and I'm hoping it gets the love it needs from Microsoft and Ensemble, given the former's recent shuttering of the latter.
Public service announcement: I still want Otogi 3, but From Software's Ninja Blade will likely fill the gap until someone comes to their senses and makes that other thing happen.
And on the free- publicity- better- than- your- own- game- PR- could- do front, I'm not sure Microsoft could get better than Kotaku calling Banjo Kazooie "More Like LEGO Grand Theft Auto".
Sony: Sony folks? Were you bummed like I was that anticipated title White Knight Chronicles -- a game showing up this year -- wasn't playable on the show floor, and its session was a PowerPoint presentation? Hey, at least 4-player co-op news snuck out.
But the Resistence 2 (PS3) and Resistence: Retribution (PSP) interconnectivity sounds nifty (actually the whole "PSP Plus" tie between the PSP and PS3 (including DualShock functionality) feels cool, and I hope devs exploit it).
I'm watching to see if LittleBigPlanet becomes the atypical console mover I think it could be. But the brilliance of leveraging Sony's IP as Sackboys (Kratos from God of War, Nariko from Heavenly Sword, "Old Snake" from Metal Gear Solid 4, Sephiroth from Final Fantasy VII), while kind of a "duh" move, showcases the kind of tactical marketing savvy I like to see. Now, if they could only do the same thing with their video and music catalogs on PSN...
Multiplatform: On the multiplatform front, Resident Evil 5 is looking grr-eat, and the co-op deets (I'm a co-op bigot) make me happy.
Konami's going to get us a new Xbox 360 and PS3 Castlevania, but other details or neigh non-existent.
And, no, Square Enix didn't announce a date for Final Fantasy XIII. [Sigh]
And this Street Fighter IV trailer? Art. Again. I want the game to look like the ink or watercolors or sand post-processing effect. Please?
Changing Business Models: On the "changing business models front", Microsoft's NXE goes a long way in that direction, because it will give better access to the wealth of content that's made the 360 a victim of its own success, and it'll be an interesting experience in the "core, non-core, social interaction" realm (a la the avatars and LIVE Party). Sony making all first-party PSP titles downloadable is a very cool, moving- into- the- digital- distro move, and Level 5's surprising ROID digital distro (Steam?) competitor gets props for super sexy packaging, and console- transformer- red- herring tease (but they don't have any PC or mobile games in their portfolio, do they? Hmm.).
Philosophy: As a left-field kind of thing, I really like what I think is an important industry statement from Peter Molyneux (Fable II):
"More and more we are saying these ones here are core games and these one here are casual games. Actually I think that is an incredibly divisive thing and if we're not careful the amount of attention we put into these core games will get less and less because they are so expensive to make."
Show Floor: Here's an embed of what the Tokyo Game Show floor must be kind of like, from blip.tv / Kotaku (who, despite my rant below, I think are probably fine folks).
More as I think about it. Maybe.
* (What is up with Kotaku? Much as I like those guys, why the hell do I have to dig through so many fractured tags to get all of my TGS info? ("tokyo game show 2008"? "TGS08"? "Lets TGS" [sic]? WTF? Oh, and there's TGS content not tagged. Nice.)
GameStop is doing "Buy 2, Get 1 Free Sale" on all used games and accessories (you can use coupon code GSB2G1 if you're ordering online).
If you have an Edge Card, you get an extra 10% off. What makes this particularly cool is if you're not inappropriately fixated on "next-gen" graphics, there are a bunch of original Xbox, Gameboy Advance, GameCube, etc. titles you can get for peanuts, that all play on their now-gen successors.
For example, print out the Xbox backwards compatibility list (from Xbox.com, once it's back online), and pick up things like Project Snowblind for $2.49, Hunter: The Reckoning (a personal fav) for $2.99, etc. (if you're looking online, I just sorted used Xbox games by price). And this is all before discounts.
Of course, the discount applies to current-gen games too, so it makes GameStop's not-discounted-enough titles more palatable, if you're looking for new or recent titles.
(I'm not affiliated with or paid by GameStop / EBGames. ;-)
As far as console rumors, I'm hoping they all do something actually phenomenal with media intersection. Brass tacks, Microsoft owns the show with Xbox Live, Sony should have exploded a long time ago (since it has the media and video content six ways to Sunday), and Nintendo could get so much more addressable market if they would get into that space (by way of focused online).
For Sony, it's probably a bit stupid of me that the most exciting thing for me would be a Twisted Metal follow up, (a laBlack). Oh, and Quantic Dream's Heavy Rain looks closest to bridging the uncanny valley -- and tugging the heart strings to boot. On the hardware front, I wonder if Sony will drop the price of the PS2; seems like a win/lose, because it'll bring revenue, but feels like it'll cannibalize PS3 adoption (unless there's an equivalent PS3 drop, which I don't expect).
For Microsoft, I wonder if there'll be any motion controller announcement, to add to the news of the price drop for the Pro SKU. I'm a Halo be-otch, so Halo Wars, Peter Jackson's project, or whatever the #### Bungie is working on would be keen. Aside from that, I'd really love "Live Anywhere" to materialize (or even "Live Somewhere") -- like some big E3 presser announcement, simultaneous dashboard download and Windows Mobile update. That'd be sweet.
Nintendo? They say they haven't abandoned the "core gamer", so I hope that means some unexpected announcements from them. A Nintendo DS more akin to the Wii, or integrated with the Wii, or something, with content that matches the stereotypical gaming demographic. Franchise wise, I'm thinking Donkey Kong. What about the Wii? I'd love for Nintendo to do something disruptive -- a "Wii 1.25", or something -- with basics like DVD, a focused network initiative, etc.
So that's my quick-and-dirty preview -- more in a few hours.
Console fanboys are going to say their console won regardless of the comparisons, and the upshot is, really, you should go with the console(s) that have the platform-only game(s) or deepest library that meets your needs.
Lotta good games coming in 2008. Quarter three's typically the slow one of the year as publisher's lose their audience to summer, and feel out where they fall in the holiday onslaught.
Quarter four is tough to predict with any accuracy, and a lot of the "to be scheduled" games get shunted into the last two quarters as placeholders for fiscal forecasting.
So I'm lumping the two quarters and uncommitted titles together.
Happy Tree Friends False Alarm -- Cutesy crude IP, of which I'm already a fan. I'm in.
Battlefield: Bad Company -- Interest in the Battlefield franchise for a lot of folks is like interest in the Victoria's Secret network fashion show -- it's their if you happen to stumble upon it. This iteration will add a single-player campaign and deepens the online component, and hopefully removes some of the concessions they've made to enable massive online play in the FPS space.
Ninja Gaiden II -- Itagaki-san has a rock star mentality, and that entertains me. Ninja Gaiden made me curse. I play it to make me think I can handle "games made for gamers".
Fable 2 -- Action RPG from the master of video game visionary promises. As long as the dog makes it in, I'm playing.
Halo Wars -- The CGI trailer has nothing to do with the gameplay, and I don't like RTS games. But the gameplay footage (available via Xbox Live) does look compelling, and may get me into the genre. Plus, it's Halo, so it'll print money.
Too Human -- I can't wait for this thing to get out of the fog of game engine heartburn. I think this has the potential to be a brilliant take on my Norse mythology love.
Fallout 3 -- I'm Fallout fiend (maybe just a Fallout fan; or just an alliteration amateur). I suspect this'll be a fun, immersive, time-suck of an RPG.
Brutal Legend -- Jack Black marries Tim Schafer and they birth a spiritual success to KISS's under-rated Psycho Circus. Tell me why you won't be playing this gem.
Alan Wake -- I'm trying to stay interested in this survival horror title. Knock off the delays and keep this thing funded on the publisher front.
Saboteur -- I think this stealth game with an innovative colorization game mechanic looks amazing. Can't wait, though I'm torn that I may be rescuing France.
LEGO Batman -- Have you played LEGO Star Wars? Have you seen the LEGO Batman toys? I am going to own this game, and my be-otches will play LEGO Robin online by my side.
LEGO Indiana Jones: The Videogame -- See above. Minus Robin.
LEGO Universe -- A LEGO MMO. A. LEGO. MMO.
Borderlands -- Hundreds of gun combos. Everything else is gravy, but I'm expecting a lot of gravy.
Fracture -- Real-time terrain deformation as a gameplay (and multi-play) mechanic. From LucasArts.
Mushroom Men -- I miss the Oddworld franchise. Mushroom Men looks to be that foot that bill. Again, from publisher Gamecock.
Dead Space -- Electronic Arts bucks behind a team that wants to create a survival horror title, inspired by the likes of Alien. A potential brown trouser excursion.
Ghostbusters The Video Game -- This game wants to be Ghosbusters 3. If they pull it off, it should rock. I hate Slimer.
The further out we go into the year, the more sketchy things get on the release front.
But here are the games that ring my bell to one degree or another for the second quarter of this year.
Grand Theft Auto IV (X360, PS3) -- Dunno about you, but this iteration of the GTA franchise (with its displaced, unwilling Russian anti-hero) might actually pull me in. If I don't play it, it's because all of the meta stuff irritates me -- namely, "Hot Coffee" and Manhunt irresponsibility.
Rez HD (XBLA) -- Weird(ish), on-rails(ish), shooter(ish) game from Q Entertainment / Hexa Drive.
PlayStation Home (PS3) -- Sony is late -- but ambitious -- to the console online party dominated by Xbox Live. I'm curious to see how this Second Life / Xbox Achievements mashup thing either innovates, or looks like a late, console(ish), poor man's Second Life / Xbox Achievements ripoff.
Sid Meier's Civilization Revolution (X360, PS3, DS) -- This strategy games been on the PC forever, and now it's bringing its hard-coreness to the console and handheld space.
de Blob (Wii) -- Painting stuff in games as a game mechanic is the New Hotness, and THQ's jumping in with new IP.
Iron Man (PS2, PC, X360, PS3, PSP, WII, DS) -- Yes, it's a movie tie-in, but it's a comic book tie-in. Yes, a lot of comic book games suck beyond belief, but I like comic books, and this title looked good at Comic-Con last year. So they're going to have had ten months to finish, tune, and polish the game.
Spore (PC) -- If this ever comes out, its modern incarnation of a god game may be one of the most innovative titles released this decade.
Robert Ludlum's The Bourne Conspiracy (X360, PS3) -- I like the folks at High Moon Studios, and the time they're taking with title -- which will launch well outside of the film vehicle -- keeps me interested. I wish they'd rename it, though; I'm tired of the whole "[bigNameIwantToSeeInLights] + [longTitle]" formula.
Warhammer Online: Age of Reckoning (PC) -- It is so time for this MMO.
Metal Gear Solid 4: Guns of the Patriots (PS3) -- Hideo Kojima wants to do something important with games. This is going to probably be his best something important.
Left 4 Dead (X360, PC) -- More zombie games. Always need more zombie games.
Hellboy: Science of Evil (X360, PS3, PSP) -- The footage and grabs from one of my favorite comic book franchises gives me the warm fuzzies.
Legendary: The Box (X360, PS3, PC) -- Hate the game name, but I dig the Pandora's Box device to populate the world with the mythological beasties I love. Then kill them, FPS-style.
2007 is now a distant memory, and while I've still got to finish The Orange Box, Assassin's Creed, and Mass Effect (and, um, Viva Piñata), I'm already looking to the games of 2008.
So what's up for the next year of gaming after arguably the most prolific and quality-high year in the industry? Did the industry peak in 2007? Does life after Halo 3 and Portal seem a letdown?
Here are my picks -- and don't get your Underoos in a knot if your favorite game isn't here. I'm a PC and 360 gamer, so those titles are a priority for me, as are those titles on other platforms that look compelling for artistic or commercial reasons.
So "your" game may not be here, I may have forgotten some, dates may change, the game may suck, blah blah blah, wah wah wah.
Kingdom Under Fire: Circle of Doom (X360) -- Hey, an action RPG brawler retake on an action RTS mainstay, playable co-op over Xbox Live? I'm in (even if the demo was less than accessible).
Pirates of the Burning Sea (PC) -- An MMO that's not orcs 'n' elves?Let's see how it does. I probably won't play until the ninja community mod expansion pack kicks in.
Devil May Cry 4 (X360, PS3)-- I'm a franchise fan, and even if it's more of the same (but bigger, faster, more insane), it being available out of the gate on the 360 makes it a grabber for me.
Super Smash Bros. Brawl (Wii) -- If I can get a Wii, this and Super Mario Galaxy are the two boxed titles I'm likely to buy.
Lost Odyssey (X360) -- This may be the JRPG that gets me into JRPGs (sorry, Blue Dragon). Yeah, it's Mistwalker Studios, but it's from Hironobu Sakaguchi (creator of the original Final Fantasy series), composed by FF music creator Nobuo Uematsu, art by manga creator Takehiko Inoue, and written by Japanese novelist Kiyoshi Shigematsu.
The Club (PC, PS3, X360) -- Take a top-notch racing game developer and throw them at a stylistic, Running Man-esqu thinking man's FPS? I'm in.
Turning Point: Fall of Liberty (PC, PS3, X360) -- An FPS in alternative 1950s America where the Nazis won? Of course it's on my list.
Insecticide (DS, PC) -- "Insecticide is a film noir action adventure game set in a decaying world run by bugs. " Plus it's published by Gamecock Media. Who are in Austin, TX, and make me laugh.
Condemned 2: Bloodshot (X360, PS3) -- The first Condemned is one of the strongest launch games on the 360, and it still stands up. Add a more polished version of one of my favorite other vertical game engines (Lithtech) and multiplayer, and I'm ready for another "brown trouser" excursion (thank you, Brits, for that expression).
Bully: Scholarship Edition (X360, Wii) -- Bully for Rockstar for doing something different with this game. Sure, it came out the PS2 a while ago, but this version will have new classes, new content, and achievements (on the 360). Plus, the 360 version is being built using Emergent Game Technologies's Gamebryo game engine.
Viking: Battle for Asgard (PS3, X360) -- I'm a big fan of Norse mythology, action brawlers, and SEGA. It's a lock.
Destroy All Humans! Path of the Furon (PS3, X360) -- I know the writer for this, so I would suck if I didn't list it. Plus the franchise genuinely rocks on all fronts.
Haze (PS3) -- Free Radical has my eternal love for the TimeSplitters franchise (bring me TS 4!). Haze looks smart and subversive. Just bring it to 360, kids -- I'd hate to see a sales shortfall for the potential franchise by limiting yourselves to a PS3 SKU.
Contradicting fall game sales predictions debunked
OK, it's not that I don't like the guy, but I when he does video gaming analysis, this guy at CNet falls flatter than me.
Below is a version of the comments I left on his blog. Last time I did this, he wrote a defensive response post, aimed at "people", and never referencing my comments. Let's see if we get a repeat infraction.
Like I said, I don't have an issue with him. He's got a good gig (more power to him). But folks like him (and I) need to recognize (and acknowledge) where we're stepping out of "analysis" and into "opinion".
Anyway, read his whole post for context, but he basically says this is his projection for each of the consoles this holiday:
Overall Xbox 360 outlook for the holiday season: mediocre.
Overall Nintendo Wii outlook for the holiday season: strong
Overall Sony Playstation 3 outlook: moderate to strong
And he says parents not able to find a $250 Wii will buy a $400 Ps3. Why they would do that rather than a $280 or $350 Xbox 360 feels a bit off to me. Maybe he's thinking parents will recognize the Sony brand over the Microsoft brand?
It's an interesting analysis, but it is lacking (and not accurate) in so many areas.
Many of the comments in response to his post point out the major misses in the article.
In addition, I'd say his analysis neglects basic market factors, and doesn't even address things like the recently released NPD numbers, which paint a very different picture than he does. And while every company is going to have their spin on these numbers, Sony's "forward-looking" take is pretty telling.
He's also inconsistent in pointing to bundles as being factors (or non-factors) in holiday sales, but doesn't mention things like the recently released Xbox 360 bundles (the Arcade bundle and the Forza 2 / Marvel Ultimate Alliance bundle).
And he says with Halo 3 out and Mass Effect the only exclusive this holiday, the 360 won't see enough of an upswing from those titles.
Seriously? Does he think the Halo 3 tailing occurred that fast?
I would argue that console exclusives (like Halo 3 or Gears of War) are console sellers, Mass Effect will likely do far better than for which he credits it (the Electronic Arts acquisition by itself is arguably indicative of this market confidence). And I don't think the "BioShock boost" is over yet, either.
And I would argue the non-exclusives are huge console draws (they are for me; I'm looking for a console's total gaming portfolio which is why Microsoft is first for me for its retail offerings; Nintendo is second because of its great Virtual Console offerings, and Sony is last).
For example, "Oh, I can also play Call of Duty 4 on Xbox 360, which is a better FPS platform? Oh, Madden '08 looks and plays ridiculously better on the 360 than the PS3? I don't need to buy a PS3 to get Devil May Cry 4? I can play Orange Box (definitely) and Assassin's Creed (probably) earlier on the 360 than the PS3? Etc.
Again, the guy has some interesting commentary, but it's super lightweight, and way behind (both in terms of time and depth) industry analyst professionals like Michael Pachter or Colin Sebastian.
He also trumpets a previous forward-looking post he did as pseudo credentials for his analysis. Avoiding a rebuttal to the idea of "Why 'Halo 3' will decide the Xbox 360's fate", I'm not sure I'd recommend trumpeting a September Halo 3 post written the day before the game was released -- when industry analysts like Pachter and Sebastian had posted deeper, more accurate predictions weeks (in some cases, months) before. And those guys, as storied as they are in their dedicated vertical market, are only "right" around 60% of the time (in a non-representative, but random, and repeated, an non-overlapping personal sampling).
Anyway, those are my thoughts. Looking at comments written in response to his post while I was writing this one, though, looks like I'm not alone in my grousing.
Hey, for those of you who have been writing to complain about me not having done a "Crotchety Gamer" post in a while ... you're welcome.
"The new version of the PS3 will come with a 40-gigabyte hard drive, cost $400, and go on sale on November 2, said Jack Tretton, president of Sony Computer Entertainment America.
"The price of the 80-gigabyte version will be cut to $500 from $600."
But don't forget:
"For the new 40-gigabyte PS3, Sony has removed its ability to play games for the predecessor PlayStation 2, which is still selling strong despite its aging technology."
Me? If I were to buy a PS3 (I'm not), I'd try to find one of the discontinued 60GB models still in stores that does play PS2 games.
I don't know yet if this is going to happen in the United States, and while it is irritating, I think there are some bigger things going on.
First, the irritating part. Parts.
Sony blasted Microsoft for Microsoft's multiple SKU approach -- a "Premium / Pro" (hard drive and wireless controller) and a "Core" (the stupid, hard drive-less configuration). This is all Microsoft had until this year, when they released the Elite. There are special editions of the console (Halo 3, Simpsons, etc.), but those don't count as mainstream retail SKUs to me. Oh, and the "Core" will probably be replaced by the "Arcade" version, which differs from the "Core" by switching to a wireless controller and including a memory card.
And Sony, who criticised multiple SKUs from Microsoft as confusing consumers, has had a 20 GB model, a 60 GB model, and an 80 GB model. Then they phased out the 60GB model in the U.S., and it looks like they're about to do the same in their European territories (Europe, the Middle East, Africa and Oceania). And they've introduced this new 40GB SKU there (and, shortly, in Aussie Land).
And it's not just a hard-drive change on the 40GB version. It'll still come with the SIXAXIS wireless controller, WiFi, and HDMI, but will have only two USB ports (not the four on the 60GB/80GB), and no multi-memory card port.
And it will not be backwards compatible with PS2 games.
Which leads to Irritation point #2: Dropping backwards compatibility. First, it's nice for gamers to have. Second, Sony was a bit uncharitable toward Microsoft as to Microsoft's not supporting backwards compatibility out of the box. Sony told GameDaily BIZ the feature drop is due to "both the reduced emphasis placed on this feature amongst later purchasers of PS3, as well as the availability of a more extensive line-up of PS3 specific titles".
Thankfully, Joystiq does a good job of refreshing folks' memory by quoting Sony's Phil Harrison as saying in 2006,
"[B]ackwards compatibility, as you know from PlayStation One and PlayStation 2, is a core value of what we believe we should offer. And access to the library of content people have created, bought for themselves, and accumulated over the years is necessary to create a format. PlayStation is a format meaning that it transcends many devices -- PSOne, PS2 and now PS3."
"Hello, Pot? Kettle's on line one."
Besides the embarrassment, what's with dropping the backwards-compatibility feature, when it's "a core value"?
I think there are at least a few options.
First, in the Sony versus Microsoft versus Nintendo race this round, I'd argue it's not the hardware -- it's the game library. Sony knew this in the PSOne and PS2 era, but they seemed to have forgotten it this round. This holiday, Sony will have 65 games for the PS3. Microsoft will have, what -- 250? 280? Halo 3, Blue Dragon, Mass Effect, Eternal Sonata, BioShock, and other console-selling Xbox 360 exclusives? Three hundred and eighty-five playable original Xbox games (and I've personally played at least 36 last-gen titles on my 360.)
By dropping PS2 support in the PS3, Sony forces PS3 owners to buy PS3 games. Games expensive to develop, and needing to recoup cost. Sony may be hoping money shifted from buying PS2-supported titles will go to PS3 game purchases.
Secondly, Sony could be hoping the move causes people to buy PS2 consoles to play PS2 games. Sony is taking a bath this console generation, coming in an arguably distant third. But the PS2 was selling well, and a recently (quietly) revamped version saw manufacturing cost efficiencies. Sony may be realizing the PS3 was cannibalizing PS2 sales more than expected, and they need to drive up their flagship sales. (As an aside, I've said multiple times only Nintendo seems to be able to avoid the self-cannibalization model.)
Or this could be as "simple" as a "right hand no knowing what the left hand is doing" situation. Could it be SCEA is shaking their heads at SCEE? (Probably. But for this? Dunno.)
Or it could be more complex. Think myriad factors, like does moving away from PS2 support in the PS3 reduce support costs? Is the software emulation unaccountably dropped from the new 40GB SKU actually somewhat hardware dependant, and does SCEE measurably reduce its loss-leader margin by taking out this component of the hardware?
And maybe, maybe this could be a good move. Maybe it introduces another SKU at enough of a reduced cost that meets enough of a new market segment that it will be profitable and non-cannibalizing.
Because Sony said one thing, lambasted the competition, then turned about and did the same thing -- in spades (at least Microsoft is releasing more feature-rich SKUs). Companies are getting a lot more scrutiny and less obfuscation in what they're doing -- why not come clean? Why not, "Market demands are currently not aggressive enough to justify manufacturing costs, so after serious study and consideration, we've decided to remove features that will least impact our core Sony PlayStation3 constituency."
Or maybe something's broken on the whole console retail model. I mean, does Sony have apologize each time they release a new DVD or music player? Do they have to go on the defensive every time they release a BetaMax, mini-CD, Sony Memory Stick, UMD, or equivalent?